By September 2025, multiple independent economic analyses confirmed that the burden of Trump's tariff regime fell overwhelmingly on American consumers rather than foreign exporters. A New York Federal Reserve study found that Americans bore 94% of tariff costs as of August 2025 — directly contradicting the administration's claim that foreign countries were paying the tariffs.
Disproportionate Impact on Low-Income Households
The tariff burden was steeply regressive. Low-income households, which spend a higher proportion of their income on consumer goods and groceries, experienced the largest proportional cost increase. Product categories with the steepest price increases — clothing, household tools, small appliances, personal care products — are necessities that consume a larger share of low-income budgets.
Documented Price Increases
Harvard Business School Pricing Lab data documented specific category impacts:
Delayed Cost Pass-Through
The worst was yet to come. In 2025, businesses absorbed roughly 80% of tariff costs to maintain market share. Analysts projected this ratio would invert by mid-2026, with consumers absorbing 80% of costs as businesses exhausted their ability to compress margins. The Tax Foundation estimated per-household costs rising from $1,000 in 2025 to $1,300-$1,500 in 2026.
Capture Significance
The tariff regime functioned as a massive regressive tax — imposed by executive fiat without Congressional approval, falling hardest on those least able to afford it, while benefiting a narrow set of domestic producers and generating revenue controlled by the executive branch. The economic burden on working families existed in direct tension with the administration's populist rhetoric, representing a form of economic extraction dressed in nationalist language.