New York Fed Economists Estimate Tariffs Added 2.9 Points to Goods Inflation by February 2026

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New York Fed economists Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise and David E. Weinstein estimate that by February 2026 tariffs had contributed 2.9 percentage points to goods price inflation, and that nearly 90 percent of the 2025 tariffs were passed through to U.S. import prices. The estimate covers sixty-seven non-oil goods categories and excludes services.

The authors say the comparisons cannot establish how much of broader price movements was itself caused by tariffs. Related: 2025-04-02–liberation-day-tariffs-consumer-price-shock and 2026-02-20–scotus-strikes-ieepa-tariffs-6-3-historic-ruling.

Sources & Citations

[1] How Fast Do Tariffs Pass Through into Consumer Prices? — Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics · Oct 6, 2026 Tier 1

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The Cascade Ledger. “New York Fed Economists Estimate Tariffs Added 2.9 Points to Goods Inflation by February 2026.” The Capture Cascade Timeline, October 6, 2026. https://capturecascade.org/event/2026-10-06--new-york-fed-liberty-street-tariffs-added-2-9-points-to-goods-inflation-by-february-2026/