CSIS Commentary on Russia-Iran Intelligence Cooperation and the Targeting of U.S. Forces

CSIS published a commentary by Justin Sherman on September 30, 2026 (publication date). It is commentary, not a CSIS finding of fact. Its lead evidence is CNN reporting that Russian spy satellites moved over a U.S. base in Saudi Arabia two days before Iran struck it, which CSIS says was likely the data Iran needed; that is an inference from timing.

Documents versus infers. CSIS says Russian intelligence has reportedly provided Iran with targeting information on ships and aircraft. It says one story on a list of critical-infrastructure targets is not corroborated elsewhere, and that for joint offensive cyber operations “the available evidence has yet to rise to that level of claim.” It also warns that “Wide-ranging claims about lockstep alliances” are counterproductive. The commentary does not say Russia is directing Iranian missile targeting; that framing is Seth Abramson’s, not a finding.