Kalshi Launches Prediction Market Letting Traders Bet on ICE's Daily Arrest Count

Kalshi built a prediction market letting traders wager on ICE’s daily arrest count, structured as a zero-to-100,000-arrest range priced in pennies that traders can bet on one day at a time — disclosed in a federal filing that included confidential appendices the public never saw. Kalshi separately runs a market on annual deportation totals, currently pricing a 96% probability of exceeding 400,000 removals for the year. Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) publicly called the arrest-count market “disgusting.”

This is the direct commodification of ICE enforcement activity into a tradeable financial instrument, distinct from the earlier Kalshi/Polymarket story this corpus tracks involving Trump family regulatory conflicts over CFTC prediction-market authority (2026-05-26–trump-calls-four-democratic-officials-scum-defending-cftc-prediction-market-authority-don-jr-conflict) — that entry concerned who regulates prediction markets and family financial ties to the platforms; this is what the platforms are now offering to bet on. Kalshi’s $22 billion valuation, confirmed in a March 2026 funding round, means the daily-arrest market operates at platform scale, not as a fringe offering — turning immigration enforcement volume into a liquid, actively-traded market alongside election and sports outcomes.