Virginia Enacts HB 892 Mandating SCC Investigation of Dominion Load Forecasting Methodology, Authorizes PJM Coordination

Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger signed House Bill 892 (Del. Irene Shin, D-Fairfax) in late April 2026, enacting a law that directs the State Corporation Commission to initiate a formal hearing investigating how Phase I and Phase II utilities — primarily Dominion Energy Virginia — calculate their electric load growth forecasts for accuracy. The law also authorizes the SCC to coordinate directly with PJM Interconnection to examine load forecast methodology, explicitly recognizing that Dominion’s forecasting numbers feed into PJM’s regional grid planning and capacity procurement.

HB 892 was enacted in the context of growing concern — from data center operators, ratepayer advocates, and legislators — that Dominion’s load forecasting approach lacks transparency. The Data Center Coalition’s Cody Murphey had specifically complained that Dominion’s process treats “high quality, well-capitalized projects the same as speculative projects” without “financial guardrails” against duplicate applications. Absent adequate methodology, “consequence-free queue squatting will unquestionably distort load forecasts, complicate system planning” and increase costs. Google’s Will Cleveland raised parallel concerns.

Structural significance: HB 892 represents the Virginia legislature’s recognition that Dominion’s load forecasting methodology — as it propagates into PJM’s capacity market and affects ratepayers across 13 states — requires independent regulatory scrutiny. The law is the Virginia analog to Ohio PUCO staff’s March 2026 validation of the OMA’s finding that AEP Ohio inflated its PJM load forecast by at least 3.3 GW through ratchet-multiplication. HB 892 creates the oversight mechanism before a specific inflation figure has been documented in Virginia, rather than after.

Context: As of April 2026, Dominion’s interconnection queue contains 47 GW of executed contracts and roughly 70 GW of total requests. Dominion’s PJM demand forecast projects only 16.6 GW of actual peak demand by 2046 — applying roughly 65% attrition discounting to the contracted queue. The GS-5 rate class (85% minimum billing demand for T&D; 60% for generation) does not take effect until January 1, 2027, so its impact on PJM forecast submissions is prospective. If Dominion applies GS-5 billing minimums as a forecast multiplier after January 2027 — analogous to AEP Ohio’s mechanism — the Dominion zone’s scale (~3-5x Ohio’s queue) means potential forecast inflation would dwarf the 3.3 GW Ohio figure. HB 892’s SCC investigation is designed to detect and address this before it propagates into PJM capacity auctions.

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