type: timeline_event
On March 12, 2026 -- Day 13 of Operation Epic Fury -- the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) issued a major humanitarian warning, reporting that up to 3.2 million people had been forcibly displaced inside Iran since the war began on February 28. The figure represented between 600,000 and 1 million Iranian households. UNHCR warned of a looming "humanitarian explosion" if hostilities continued.
The agency reported that most displaced persons were fleeing Tehran and other major urban centers -- which had been subjected to intensive U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeting government ministries, IRGC command infrastructure, communications networks, and industrial facilities -- toward northern Iran and rural areas. The Hengaw human rights organization separately reported that at least 4,300 people had been killed in the first ten days of the war, of whom approximately 390 (9.6 percent) were identified as civilians. Iran's government claimed a higher civilian toll of over 1,255 dead, stating that most of those killed were civilians.
UNHCR specifically flagged the acute vulnerability of refugee populations already present in Iran, particularly the estimated 750,000 Afghans registered as refugees and an additional 3.65 million Afghan migrants without formal status, many of whom had lost access to cash, shelter, or safe routes out of conflict zones.
Refugees International described the war as being "on course for cataclysmic civilian harm, displacement, and humanitarian need," citing the combination of sustained heavy airstrikes on densely populated urban areas, the Strait of Hormuz closure blocking food and medicine imports, strikes on water and power infrastructure, and Iran's already-weakened public health system following years of U.S. sanctions. UNESCO had separately condemned strikes on cultural heritage sites including damage to the vicinity of Golestan Palace, a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
The 3.2 million displacement figure -- reached in just 13 days -- exceeded the rate of civilian displacement in the early months of both the 2003 Iraq War and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.